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2024 Election Results #

The Virtual Tout® issued its Final Forecast with the polls opening on the East Coast at 6 AM Eastern Standard Time, November 5, 2024:

  • Republican: Trump/Vance (280)
  • Democratic: Harris/Walz (258)

We correctly predicted a Republican victory.

After the results for Nevada and Arizona have been tallied, we expect these electoral vote totals:

  • Republican: Trump/Vance (312)
  • Democratic: Harris/Walz (226)

We underestimated the magnitude of the Republican victory, which is not surprising given the high volatility and high volume of prediction market trading in the week leading up to election day.

On election day itself, 1.8 million shares were traded on contracts for the two major parties in the market that we relied on for the 2024 presidential election (PredictIt).

The 2024 election is over, and the winner is the prediction markets themselves, which have again proven to be more effective predictors of election outcomes than the polls and pundits.

If you have to forecast, forecast often. Edgar R. Fiedler

See TinyTicker™ for up-to-the-minute prediction market analytics.

The Virtual Tout® listens to all sides of the political debate. We post research results and commentary on this site.

Acknowledgements #

The Virtual Tout® thanks Shree Bharadwaj, data scientist and angel investor, for his support of research and development on prediction markets and surveys.

Northwestern Analytics Partners, LLLP, Andrew D’Amico and Michael Purvis, provided invaluable feedback on this website. They also joined Tom Miller in developing the TinyTicker™.

Thanks to Candice Bradley, Northwestern data science instructor and erstwhile anthropologist and journalist, who provided valuable feedback about this website and offered opinions and suggestions along the way, some of which were incorporated into the narrative.

Northwestern University’s School of Professional Studies and Media Relations, Global Marketing and Communications, have supported this work over the years, hosting public events about political research and data science, working with the media, and issuing press releases about election forecasting methods.

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