The Virtual Tout® is unique in predicting a Democratic landslide. #

On September 13, The Economist posted this headline: “Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck.” Most political pollsters and pundits suggest that this will be a close election.

What makes The Virtual Tout® so different? Our forecasting models rely on prediction markets, not polls.

Political polls are snapshots of the recent past. Polls have limited predictive power, especially when conducted many days before an election.

Prediction markets, on the other hand, are forward-looking. Investors anticipate with will happen on election day and place their bets accordingly. Just as the stock market is a leading indicator of what will happen with the economy, a political prediction market is leading indicator of what will happen with an election.

On September 6, we learned that Trump’s sentencing in the New York “hush money” case would be delayed until after the November election. This could explain the 68-vote drop in forecasted Electoral College votes for the Democratic ticket between September 5 and September 8. Trump’s legal affairs can affect the presidential election.

On September 9, We were predicting a close election, with the Harris/Walz ticket commanding 288 Electoral College votes, only 18 more than the 270 needed to win.

Both parties’ election prospects changed dramatically on September 10, when we saw the combined effects of two critical events: the Trump-Harris presidential debate (with an estimated 67.1 million viewers) and Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris. On that day, there was a rise of more than one hundred forecasted Democratic votes in the Electoral College.

In the Trump-Biden debate on June 27, Biden’s performance revealed the effects of his age. In the Trump-Harris debate on September 10, Trump revealed his personality. Most regard Kamala Harris as the clear winner of the Trump-Harris debate.

On September 12, the front page of The New York Times summarized campaign messaging from the presidential candidates:

• To Trump, U.S. Is Failing.
• To Harris, There’s Hope.

Also relevant to the political fortunes of the campaigns from September 12, The Wall Street Journal reported a 2.5% August inflation rate with the associated headline:

• Inflation Slows to 3-Year Low

On September 15, Secret Service agents prevented an assassination attempt on Donald Trump. This was the second assassination attempt on Trump.

On September 16, a number of poll results were released indicating higher voter preferences for the Harris/Walz ticket.

Here are The Virtual Tout® September forecasts for the Democratic and Republican tickets (270 votes to win):

• September 1: Harris/Walz (374), Trump/Vance (164)
• September 2: Harris/Walz (374), Trump/Vance (164)
• September 3: Harris/Walz (359), Trump/Vance (179)
• September 4: Harris/Walz (357), Trump/Vance (181)
• September 5: Harris/Walz (357), Trump/Vance (181)
• September 6: Harris/Walz (324), Trump/Vance (214)
• September 7: Harris/Walz (306), Trump/Vance (232)
• September 8: Harris/Walz (289), Trump/Vance (249)
• September 9: Harris/Walz (288), Trump/Vance (250)
• September 10: Harris/Walz (400), Trump/Vance (138)
• September 11: Harris/Walz (417), Trump/Vance (121)
• September 12: Harris/Walz (414), Trump/Vance (124)
• September 13: Harris/Walz (414), Trump/Vance (124)
• September 14: Harris/Walz (412), Trump/Vance (126)
• September 15: Harris/Walz (403), Trump/Vance (135)
• September 16: Harris/Walz (428), Trump/Vance (110)

A recording of the Trump-Harris debate is available from ABC News:

Over the past few months, there have been days (in addition to September 9) when we foresaw a close election. Predicted Democratic votes were very low in mid July—it looked like a Republican landslide. Since the September 10 debate, however, we have been predicting a Democratic landslide.

It is most unusual to see a race moving from toss-up to landslide in two or three weeks, let alone a race moving from Republican landslide to Democratic landslide two or three months. This figure shows massive changes in forecasted Electoral College votes in the 2024 presidential election:

These Electoral College vote forecasts rely on closing prices in the PredictIt market/contract for the party that will win the 2024 presidential election. The average daily two-party trading volume in this highly-active market has been around 37 thousand shares. The days with the highest trading volume were July 21 (166 thousand shares) with Biden withdrawing from the race and endorsing Harris and September 10 (158 thousand shares) with the Trump-Harris debate and Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris.

Could current events and campaign activities affect future forecasts? Of course they could. We will keep an eye on events and associated prediction market prices as we generate and publish daily election forecasts until election day, November 5, 2024.

News releases from Northwestern University and the School of Professional Studies review our election forecasting methods.

The Virtual Tout® listens to all sides of the political debate. We post research results, election forecasts, and political commentary on this site. We describe forecasting models and methods in the News posting from September 1-7.

Postings from previous days are on the News log.