October Forecasts #
The Virtual Tout® now provides minute-by-minute forecasts, updating this site when there is a change in forecasted electoral votes.
We will be posting forecasts until election day, November 5, 2024.
The current electoral vote forecast (270 needed to win):
- Democratic: Harris/Walz (292)
- Rebublican: Trump/Vance (246)
The vice presidential debate had a small influence on forecasted electoral votes, with Vance showing a slight advantage over Walz. This influence was revealed around midnight on the evening of the debate, October 1, and at the end of the following day, October 2.
Recent end-of-day forecasts:
- September 30: Harris/Walz (308), Trump/Vance (230)
- October 1: Harris/Walz (302), Trump/Vance (236)
- October 2: Harris/Walz (292), Trump/Vance (246)
Massive changes in forecasted Electoral College votes are revealed in this figure:
Electoral College vote forecasts rely on minute-by-minute prices in the PredictIt market/contract for the party that will win the 2024 presidential election. The average daily two-party trading volume in this highly-active market has been around 37 thousand shares.
Campaign events help to explain which party will win in the Electoral College. Note the dates with high trading volumes and associated changes in forecasted electoral votes:
- July 21–23 (384 thousand shares over three days). Biden withdraws from the race and endorses Harris.
- July 31 (102 thousand shares). Trump’s appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists. Trump falsely suggested that Harris misled voters about her race. July 31 represented a turning-point in the election, as forecasts moved from an anticipated Republican win to a Democratic win.
- August 6–7 (188 thousand shares over two days). Harris secures the Democratic Party nomination for president and selects Walz as her running mate.
- September 10 (158 thousand shares). Trump-Harris debate and Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris. Election forecasts suggest that the race may be moving from Democratic-leaning to a strong Democratic win.
Do current events and campaign activities affect forecasts? Of course they do. We keep an eye on events and associated prediction market prices as we generate and publish updated election forecasts.
News releases from Northwestern University and the School of Professional Studies review our election forecasting methods.
Methods for 2024 are discussed under Top-Down Forecasting, Estimating Vote Shares, and Step Functions of Electoral Votes.
Our methods have been recognized in the news: see Media.
The Virtual Tout® listens to all sides of the political debate. We post research results, election forecasts, and political commentary on this site.
Postings from previous days are on the News log.