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More about Political Research

What voters do is determined at the ballot box—These are the facts of political research. What voters think is another matter.

Many studies of voting behavior rely on aggregate data, showing how selected demographic groups vote for Democratic or Republican candidates. To understand what voters think, however, we need to do more than study how they vote in the aggregate.

There are numerous studies of political speech or campaign talk. These provide a window into the positioning of candidates across various issues. Data from public media may show how candidates think and talk or how political pundits think and talk. But these data cannot be regarded as representative of public opinion. They do not show how the voters think and talk.

Secondary research presents problems. Many media outlets today promote a political agenda. We must be especially cautious in making inferences from these data sources, recognizing the political positions of ownership, management, and contributors.

To understand how voters feel about the issues of the day, we conduct primary research. Such research should employ safeguards that ensure representative sampling. It should also employ best practices in behavior and attitude measurement. Contemporary research includes lab and field experiments, as well as conjoint measurement (Druckman and Green 2021).

Sampling lies at the heart of accurate surveys of political opinion. We are forever in search of representative samples.

Regarding social media and public opinion, we look for sites that provide open, nonpartisan data sourcing. The search for such sites continues.

References on Political Research #

  • Druckman, James N., and Donald P. Green. (eds.) 2021. Advances in Experimental Political Science. Princeton, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. [ISBN-13: 978-1-108-74588-8] Publisher link to frontmatter.

  • Hart, Roderick P. 2000. Campaign Talk, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [ISBN-13: 978-0691001265] Publisher link.

  • Theiss-Morse, Elizabeth A., and Michael W. Wagner. 2022. Political Behavior of the American Electorate (fifteenth edition). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. [ISBN-13: 978-1071822173]. Publisher link.

Go to Political Research and Forecasting.

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