July 18, 2024

Yesterday saw the completion of the third day of the Republican National Convention and a White House announcement that President Biden tested positive for Covid-19.

The November general election will pit Trump-Vance against a Democratic ticket to be defined. What can candidates do to win?

Candidates cannot change their dates of birth. Consider candidates on the tickets as they stand today:

• Joe Biden, Democratic candidate for president, born November 20, 1942 (age 81): Wikipedia biography.

• Donald Trump, Republican candidate for president, born June 14, 1946 (age 78): Wikipedia biography.

• Kamala Harris, Democratic candidate for vice president, born October 20, 1964 (current age 59, age 60 on election day): Wikipedia biography.

• J.D. Vance, Republican candidate for vice president, born August 2, 1984 (current age 39, age 40 on election day): Wikipedia biography.

Candidates’ records of achievement (or failure)—personal, academic, business, legal, legislative, or administrative—are fixed. They can’t change what they’ve done in the past.

Candidates are unlikely to change their values. We neither expect nor want candidates to change positions on fundamental matters of public policy.

Between now and election day, there will be many events over which candidates have little or no control. Time marches on. Good and bad things happen. Most world events are not affected by campaign activities.

What can the candidates do to win? They can change the wording, style, and delivery of campaign messages.

Public speaking is a skill that can be mastered at any age. Bring in the voice coaches and speech writers. Practice the art of oration. Deliver forceful speeches over the next four months, and see where the election forecasts go.

The Virtual Tout® will be watching and listening to both sides of the debate. And if we can develop trustworthy, data-driven predictive models, we will post our forecasts here.

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