October 13, 2024
For the first two weeks of October, we have struggled to find an explanation for the recent move in forecasted electoral votes toward the Republican ticket of Trump/Vance.
The Republican message has been a dark, anti-immigrant message, laced with disparaging comments about Harris. Trump vows to take revenge against his political opponents if he wins the 2024 election. Neither Trump nor Vance accepts the results of the last presidential election. In style and substance, the Republican ticket is focused on its MAGA base.
In contrast, the Democratic message has been upbeat and hopeful, offering unity rather than division. This is a message of openness to all Americans, including Republicans who reject Trump and the MAGA movement.
Nonetheless, some current events and campaign efforts could help explain the forecasts moving in the Trump/Vance direction.
Voters fear further US involvement in foreign wars. #
On October 3, 2024, Harris campaigned with Liz Cheney, appealing to neo-conservatives amid threads of expanding war in the Middle East. Few people think positively about the past wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Cheney neo-conservatives are closely associated with these wars.
Conflicts in Europe and the Middle East continue. The war between Ukraine and Russia shows no signs of ending. And there is the danger of a regional war in the Middle East.
The Biden-Harris administration has been pursuing a traditional foreign policy, supporting NATO and Ukraine in Europe and supporting Israel in the Middle East.
In the late 1960s and throughout the 1970s, the Democratic Party was the anti-war party. While today’s Democratic Party could hardly be described as a “pro-war” party, it does support sending military equipment to Ukraine and Israel.
Trump, on the other hand, is seen as an isolationist. When Trump says “American first,” many voters hear “America without the burden of foreign alliances.”
Many voters across the political spectrum say, “No more wars.”
Voters want change. #
On October 8, 2024, while appearing on The View, Harris closely aligned herself with Biden.
Sonny Hosten of The View asked, “Would you have done anything differently from President Biden during the last four years?”
Harris responded, “There is not a thing that comes to mind. I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.”
Can Harris be the change candidate while serving in the Biden administration?
The October 10, 2004, broadcast by the progressive media channel The Young Turks (TYT) provided a possible explanation for why Trump has been gaining in the polls and prediction markets. Ana Kasparian and Cenk Uygur argue that Harris is too closely aligned with Biden, an unpopular president. To win the election, these commentators believe that Harris needs to be the change candidate.
Many voters across the political spectrum say, “We want change.”
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