October 1–31, 2024 ·

Review of October 2024 #

The Virtual Tout® provides up-to-the-minute forecasts on tinyticker.

Mainstream media describes the race for the White House as a dead heat. Prediction markets often tell a different story as they respond quickly to current and campaign events.

The 2024 race for the presidency has gone from toss-up to Republican landslide in June and July, to a toss-up in early August, to a possible Democratic landslide through much of August and September, and back to a toss-up at the end of September. Much of October saw movement toward the Republican ticket. Then the last five days of October saw a 58-electoral-vote movement in the direction of the Democratic ticket.

Here is the electoral vote forecast at the end of October (270 needed to win):

Republican: Trump/Vance (309)
Democratic: Harris/Walz (229)

Here is a picture of the 2024 presidential election heading into November:

Figure Showing Effects of Current and Campaign Events

Do current events and campaign activities affect forecasts? Of course they do. We keep an eye on current and campaign events, as well as associated prediction market prices, as we generate and publish updated election forecasts. We post updated forecasts minute by minute on tinyticker.

We have seen high trading volume and volatility at the end of October. Can we believe what prediction markets are telling us?

Prediction Markets in the Media #

The New York Times published an article about prediction markets in mid October. This was one of many Media reports about prediction markets in September and October.

Prediction markets have a Republican bias. We assessed the degree of Republican bias in 2020, and we currently correct for that degree of bias. What is uncertain, however, is the degree of Republican bias in the prediction markets of 2024. Further study of prediction market prices may provide answers.

Technical and fundamental political analyses have not been in alignment during October. The Virtual Tout® forecast, guided by sixty years of presidential election history and a trustworthy prediction market, suggested a Republican victory for most of October. Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, suggested a Democratic victory. We reviewed the misalignment of technical and fundamental analyses in the October 20 News posting.

November 1, 2024. Northwestern University hosted a thought leadership panel Chronicling the 2024 Presidential Election: Faculty Perspectives and Predictions.

October Forecasts (2020 and 2024) #

We compared forecasts for the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. The results may come as a shock to many readers:

Figure Comparing 2020 and 2024 Forecasts

The October 16 news posting described how we made this comparison.

We have identified no obvious current or campaign events to explain the swings in forecasted electoral votes in much of October. The October 13 news posting suggested possible explanations. The Fortune article on October 24, 2024 provided additional discussion.

On October 22, The New York Times published an interview with Trump’s longest serving chief of staff, John Kelly: As Election Nears, Kelly Warns Trump Would Rule Like a Dictator. Prediction markets responded to the Kelly story by moving in the direction of the Democratic ticket. But that movement was short-lived.

The October 23 news posting suggested a closing campaign message for the Democrats: This election isn’t just about women’s rights. It’s about everyone’s rights.

If we believe John Kelly’s words, electing Trump would be electing a dictator as president of the United States. As early as the News posting of July 17, we warned that “it (fascism) can happen here.” Will the voters heed the warning?

Throughout October, Kamala Harris proved to be an effective campaigner. The October 19 news posting points to Harris’s talent as a communicator. Massive campaign events are planned for the last days of the campaign.

Regarding Democratic and Republican messaging, the 2024 race looks like 1964. We presented an updated analysis of historical data in an October 2 posting.

Forecasting Methods #

We provide detailed discussion of our methods under Top-Down Forecasting, Focus on Electoral Votes, Estimating Vote Shares, and Electoral Vote Step Functions.

Electoral College vote forecasts from The Virtual Tout® rely on prices in the PredictIt market/contract for the party that will win the 2024 presidential election. Between June 8 and October 31, the average daily two-party trading volume in this highly-active market has been around 43 thousand shares. Learn more about prediction markets under Prediction Markets.

News releases from Northwestern University and the School of Professional Studies reviewed our election forecasting methods.

September 30 through October 31 #

Here are the end-of-day forecasts:

September 30: Harris/Walz (308), Trump/Vance (230)
October 1: Harris/Walz (302), Trump/Vance (236) VP Debate
October 2: Harris/Walz (292), Trump/Vance (246) 10-vote swing Republican
October 3: Harris/Walz (298), Trump/Vance (240)
October 4: Harris/Walz (288), Trump/Vance (250) 10-vote swing Republican
October 5: Harris/Walz (283), Trump/Vance (255)
October 6: Harris/Walz (283), Trump/Vance (255)
October 7: Harris/Walz (268), Trump/Vance (270) 15-vote swing Republican
October 8: Harris/Walz (268), Trump/Vance (270)
October 9: Harris/Walz (263), Trump/Vance (275)
October 10: Harris/Walz (234), Trump/Vance (304) 29-vote swing Republican
October 11: Harris/Walz (234), Trump/Vance (304)
October 12: Harris/Walz (233), Trump/Vance (305)
October 13: Harris/Walz (233), Trump/Vance (305)
October 14: Harris/Walz (238), Trump/Vance (300)
October 15: Harris/Walz (243), Trump/Vance (295)
October 16: Harris/Walz (248), Trump/Vance (290)
October 17: Harris/Walz (223), Trump/Vance (315) 25-vote swing Republican
October 18: Harris/Walz (223), Trump/Vance (315)
October 19: Harris/Walz (219), Trump/Vance (319)
October 20: Harris/Walz (219), Trump/Vance (319)
October 21: Harris/Walz (201), Trump/Vance (337) 18-vote swing Republican
October 22: Harris/Walz (192), Trump/Vance (346)
October 23: Harris/Walz (214), Trump/Vance (324) 22-vote swing Democratic
October 24: Harris/Walz (195), Trump/Vance (343) 19-vote swing Republican
October 25: Harris/Walz (192), Trump/Vance (346)
October 26: Harris/Walz (171), Trump/Vance (367) 21-vote swing Republican
October 27: Harris/Walz (174), Trump/Vance (364)
October 28: Harris/Walz (192), Trump/Vance (346) 18-vote swing Democratic
October 29: Harris/Walz (193), Trump/Vance (345)
October 30: Harris/Walz (220), Trump/Vance (318) 27-vote swing Democratic
October 31: Harris/Walz (229), Trump/Vance (309)

September ended Harris/Walz (308), Trump/Vance (230). October ended Harris/Walz (229), Trump/Vance (309). That represents an almost complete reversal in one month’s time, a reversal that is hard to explain.

The Virtual Tout® listens to all sides of the political debate. We post research results, election forecasts, and political commentary on this site. And we post up-to-the-minute forecasts on TinyTicker™.

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