Election Results: November 6, 2024

The Virtual Tout® issued its Final Forecast with the polls opening on the East Coast at 6 AM Eastern Standard Time, November 5, 2024:

• Republican: Trump/Vance (280)
• Democratic: Harris/Walz (258)

The actual 2024 electoral vote totals:

• Republican: Trump/Vance (312)
• Democratic: Harris/Walz (226)

We correctly predicted a Republican victory. But we underestimated the strength of that victory. The Trump-Vance Republican ticket won the popular vote as well as the projected Electoral College vote.

On election day, 1.8 million shares were traded on contracts for the two major parties in the market that we relied on for the 2024 presidential election (PredictIt).

Some might argue that the winner of the 2024 election has been the prediction markets themselves, which have again proven to be more effective predictors of election outcomes than polls and pundits.

Methods for comparing 2020 and 2024 forecasts were discussed in the October 16 news posting.

Detailed forecasting results are available for October and September.

The Virtual Tout® listens to all sides of the political debate. We post research results, election forecasts, and political commentary on this site. And we provide up-to-the-minute forecasts on TinyTicker™.

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