Data Sources for Election Forecasts

An opinion poll or preference survey asks, “If the election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?” Learn more about political polling, past and present.

Prediction markets and surveys ask, “Which candidate do you think will win?” Participants in prediction markets place bets on their predictions. There is the chance of losing or winning—risk and reward. Participants in prediction surveys win with correct predictions—reward only. Learn more about prediction markets.

Political polls usually favor Democrats, while prediction markets usually favor Republicans. Prediction surveys are able to “split the difference,” providing accurate predictions of election outcomes.

Prediction surveys comprise a proprietary technology developed by The Virtual Tout® and employed successfully in the Georgia senatorial runoff elections in 2021.

Prediction-market-based forecasts from The Virtual Tout® can be expected to be more accurate than forecasts from prediction markets themselves because our forecasts adjust for anticipated biases in prediction markets.

Prediction-survey-based forecasts from The Virtual Tout® can be expected to be more accurate than forecasts from prediction markets themselves because our forecasts are based on models that incorporate both prediction survey and census data.

Go to the home page of The Virtual Tout.