Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election

The Virtual Tout® Beats Other Forecasts #

For the 2020 election, The Virtual Tout® updated its forecast every hour across the two months leading up to election day. Each hourly forecast was based on simulating what would happen in state-by-state voting in the Electoral College.

Kay Burley of Sky News interviewed Tom Miller on October 29, 2020, five days before the election. Watch the Interview.

Horizon Charts Tell the Story #

For the 2020 presidential election, following results from prediction markets, we mistakenly predicted that Georgia would vote Republican. Note the red or pink colors for Georgia in this political horizon chart:

Political horizon charts show the progress of political campaigns across time, pitting Democratic candidates against Republican candidates in each contest. The Political Horizon Charts podcast on Spotify explains horizon charts with chance-of-winning percentage differences, as shown above.

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