Forecasting Methods in 2024

Here is a picture of the 2024 presidential election:

We saw especially high trading volume and volatility in the days leading up to election day, November 5, 2024.

Did current events and campaign activities affect forecasts? Of course they did. We generated updated forecasts minute by minute on TinyTicker™.

October and November Forecasts (2020 and 2024) #

Methods for comparing 2020 and 2024 forecasts were discussed in the October 16 news posting.

Detailed forecasting results were posted for October and September.

Additional daily postings were provided on the News log.

Prediction Markets and Forecasting Methods #

Technical political analyses did not align with fundamental political analyses during October. The Virtual Tout® 2024 forecast, guided by sixty years of presidential election history and a trustworthy prediction market, suggested a Republican victory for most of October. Fundamental analyses, on the other hand, suggested a Democratic victory. We reviewed technical and fundamental analyses in the October 20 News posting.

We provide detailed discussion of our methods under Top-Down Forecasting, Focus on Electoral Votes, Estimating Vote Shares, and Electoral Vote Step Functions.

The Virtual Tout® listens to all sides of the political debate. We post research results, election forecasts, and political commentary on this site. And we provide up-to-the-minute forecasts on TinyTicker™.

Go to the home page of The Virtual Tout.

Click on the items below to learn more about 2024 forecasting methods. #