Electoral College Markets

Predicting the outcome of a presidential election in the United States means predicting results in each Electoral College market.

For the 2020 presidential election, drawing on prediction market data for selected states, we mistakenly predicted that Georgia would support Republican electors, as shown in this horizon chart:

Political horizon charts show the progress of political campaigns across time, pitting Democratic candidates against Republican candidates in each contest. The Political Horizon Charts podcast on Spotify explains horizon charts with chance-of-winning percentage differences, as shown above.

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