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Forecast: November 5, 2024

Election Day, November 5, 2024 #

With the polls opening on the East Coast at 6 AM Eastern Standard Time, November 5, 2024, The Virtual Tout® has the Republican ticket in the lead (270 needed to win):

  • Republican: Trump/Vance (280)
  • Democratic: Harris/Walz (258)

The Virtual Tout® will continue updating minute-by-minute forecasts on TinyTicker™ as long as the PredictIt prediction market remains open for trading.

Those who support the Democratic ticket can remain hopeful for various reasons, as discussed in the November 5 news posting.

Here was the end-of-day electoral vote forecast for November 4:

  • Republican: Trump/Vance (275)
  • Democratic: Harris/Walz (263)

Here is a picture of the 2024 presidential election:

Figure Showing Effects of Current and Campaign Events

We have seen especially high trading volume and volatility in the past week. November 4 experienced the highest trading volume of the 2024 election, with 518 thousand shares traded on contracts for the two major parties.

Do current events and campaign activities affect forecasts? Of course they do. And we generate updated forecasts minute by minute on TinyTicker™.

October and November Forecasts (2020 and 2024) #

Figure Comparing 2020 and 2024 Forecasts

Methods for comparing 2020 and 2024 forecasts were discussed in the October 16 news posting.

Detailed forecasting results are available for October and September.

Prior days’ postings are on the News log.

Prediction Markets and Forecasting Methods #

Technical political analyses did not align with fundamental political analyses during October. The Virtual Tout® forecast, guided by sixty years of presidential election history and a trustworthy prediction market, suggested a Republican victory for most of October. Fundamental analyses, on the other hand, suggested a Democratic victory. We reviewed technical and fundamental analyses in the October 20 News posting.

We provide detailed discussion of our methods under Top-Down Forecasting, Focus on Electoral Votes, Estimating Vote Shares, and Electoral Vote Step Functions.

The Virtual Tout® listens to all sides of the political debate. We post research results, election forecasts, and political commentary on this site. And we provide up-to-the-minute forecasts on TinyTicker™.

Go to the log of News postings.

The most recent news is on the home page.

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